[Omeo33] Art 0873 - Homeopathy, 2008, 97 (4), 214-219

[Gino Santini]

How can we change beliefs? A Bayesian perspective
A.L.B. Rutten

How can Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) change our beliefs? The 
fact that they do update prior beliefs to different posterior beliefs 
is explained by Bayesian philosophy. Crucial points in Bayesian 
analysis include setting the first prior expectation right and 
sequential updating of the prior in the light of new evidence. 
Bayesian analysis depends highly on the evidence included. RCT 
evidence can only falsify the placebo hypothesis, it cannot indicate 
which mechanism of action could be responsible for an intrinsic 
effect and therefore cannot overturn existing beliefs. Bayesian 
reasoning could structure further discussion, but subjectivity is an 
inherent element of this process. In the case of homeopathy the first 
prior is not a common prior shared by all parties to the debate, but 
a paradigm, this prevents common updating of beliefs. Only by keeping 
an open mind towards other paradigms and all possible hypotheses can 
a low Bayesian prior be elevated to the point of accepting a new 
paradigm, this is more relevant than Bayesian calculations.

Disponibile il full-text su richiesta
-- 

=== mailto:g.santini a ismo.it